‘s hopes of retaining the final season have been ended within the quarter-finals by Actual Madrid on penalties.
Though Man Metropolis could have in all probability felt they deserved the victory, it was Los Blancos who walked away as victors — en path to successful the Champions League.
Pep Guardiola’s males held 62% possession in opposition to Actual Madrid on the Bernabeu of their 3-3 draw. Each scored their three targets from minimal Anticipated Objectives, with the mixed xG within the match solely at 1.45 xG.
Nonetheless, within the 1-1 draw on the Etihad, Man Metropolis dominated the sport much more so, boasting 67% possession, producing 2.74 xG within the match. However they solely scored the one aim. Actual Madrid got here with an identical plan, having much less of the ball, solely taking eight pictures within the match in comparison with Man Metropolis’s 33 pictures. They regarded to harm Guardiola’s aspect in transitional moments with their abundance of attacking expertise.
The common positions maps from the 1-1 draw on the Etihad paint the image properly from throughout each legs. On the left, Man Metropolis have been pushing gamers larger up and trying to squeeze the opposition in their very own half. On the appropriate, Actual Madrid sat deeper, however regarded to hit Man Metropolis on the counter with explicit give attention to their left channel.
On each events, first within the sport on the Bernabeu after which once more on the Etihad, Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior would look to each drift to the left aspect collectively, making a 2 vs 1 in opposition to Kyle Walker, the place they discovered some pleasure. One other key issue to reveal in thoughts was that Man Metropolis had Rodri in defensive midfield, typically placing out fires in transition for Guardiola’s aspect. This season, nonetheless, they’ve struggled much more in defensive transition moments in his absence.
Within the 2023-24 season, Rodri was averaging 4.04 possessions received within the center third and a pair of.14 possessions received within the defensive third per 90 minutes. The Spaniard additionally averaged 0.8 interceptions and a pair of.14 tackles per 90.
This season, Mateo Kovacic, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva have been sharing the duty in midfield. Gundogan leads for possessions received within the center third (2.94) and possessions received within the defensive third per 90 (1.47). He has additionally made probably the most interceptions in midfield with 0.8 per 90, however Kovacic making probably the most tackles with 2.67 per 90.
The passing community above belongs to Actual Madrid from the 1-1 draw final season between the 2 sides. This not solely exhibits the defensive form we spoke about, but additionally the insistence to maintain two gamers within the ahead line for counter attacking moments.
However with the introduction of Kylian Mbappe, Carlo Ancelotti now has the choice to place out maybe probably the most devastating transitional attacking staff on this planet in opposition to one of many worst defensive transition groups on this planet this season.
So with the lack of Rodri (and Walker) for Man Metropolis blended with the addition of Mbappe for Actual Madrid, how can Guardiola keep away from a counter-attacking masterclass?
The place Man Metropolis typically seemed to be aggressive in final seasons video games, they might typically decide to a person to man strategy, which frequently left them defending 4 vs 4 within the backline when Actual Madrid despatched it lengthy. For Actual Madrid’s aim within the 1-1 draw, a protracted balls places Man Metropolis right into a 4 vs 4 scenario simply 11 minutes into the sport, with Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr up in opposition to Ruben Dias, Rodri, Manuel Akanji and Walker.
Guardiola is more likely to stand by his rules, trying to be aggressive in opposition to Actual Madrid, dominate the ball and management proceedings. However it is going to be the style of how he does this that decides the sport. By trying to maintain a +1 in transition/relaxation defence (e.g. 5 vs 4 as an alternative of 4 vs 4 within the instance above), Man Metropolis could be defending themselves barely extra, permitting an additional participant to offer cowl on whichever aspect Actual Madrid look to focus on (as they did down the left final season).
This might imply Matheus Nunes, who has been beginning as a makeshift proper again, holds his place at fullback all through the sport somewhat than pushing on too far. It might be certain that left channel cannot be overloaded to create 2 vs 1 conditions for Actual Madrid’s gifted forwards.
Man Metropolis will even realise on this sport they’ve an opportunity to take advantage of some weaknesses in Actual Madrid’s present squad scenario. Very like Guardiola is lacking Rodri, Ancelotti is lacking a complete host of defenders, together with the very influential Antonio Rudiger who did a wonderful job protecting Erling Haaland quiet final season throughout each legs.
Actual Madrid will doubtless line up with 21-year-old Raul Asencio, who has solely made 21 senior appearances for Los Blancos, and Aurelien Tchouameni who is of course a defensive midfielder.
This might depart Haaland and Guardiola licking their lips on the prospect of organising in a extra defensive method, affording that +1 within the line of defense, and trying to work the mismatch between Haaland and the opposition centre-back pairing. They did this to nice impact this season in opposition to within the Premier League, recording a 3-1 victory.
That is the passing community for Man Metropolis from their 3-1 win in opposition to Chelsea in January, which exhibits the deeper defensive unit. With six gamers plus the goalkeeper behind the midway line for a lot of construct up routines, Man Metropolis regarded to attract the opposition press in earlier than going excessive into Haaland. The Norwegian may then hyperlink play with Omar Marmoush (LW) and Phil Foden (RW) near him.
An identical sport plan may very well be environment friendly in opposition to this Actual Madrid aspect, limiting the house in behind for the speedy quartet of Los Blancos to take advantage of in transition. It should additionally enable Haaland to pin the central defenders and use his bodily prowess over the 2 of them. This might make for a clumsy encounter for the inexperienced Ascencio and makeshift centre-back of Tchouameni.
