Arsenal’s on Saturday left them six factors behind league leaders Liverpool, who nonetheless have a recreation in hand on Mikel Arteta’s aspect. It was a vastly disappointing night time for the north Londoners, which resulted in lots of their supporters fearing their title problem is already over.
With nearly half a season remaining, although, there are quite a few causes for to consider they’ll nonetheless compete with Arne Slot’s staff for the Premier League trophy. Right here, Telegraph Sport explains why the title race is just not fairly completed but.
This damage disaster will go
Arsenal’s damage listing has been a supply of concern all through this season, and is maybe probably the most important cause for his or her lack of ability to enhance on the earlier marketing campaign. Proper now, the damage disaster is at its most extreme: they’d seven essential gamers lacking from the draw with Villa.
Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu, William Saliba, Riccardo Calafiori, Ethan Nwaneri, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus are all at present unavailable due to health issues. The attacking accidents are particularly debilitating – towards Villa, they’d three academy gamers on the bench and just one senior ahead.
The excellent news is that the likes of White, Tomiyasu, Calafiori and Nwaneri are believed to be nearing returns within the subsequent few weeks. Saliba’s damage, in the meantime, was described by Arsenal as “minor” earlier than the sport towards Villa.
The return of White and , particularly, will make a major distinction to Arsenal’s energy in depth. Each gamers can function in quite a few positions, permitting Arteta to rotate his gamers and scale back the bodily load on those that have been accessible in latest weeks. Jurrien Timber, for instance, has performed many extra minutes than Arsenal would have needed after he missed nearly all of final season with a knee drawback.
Saka’s absence is extra long-term (he’s prone to be out till March) however he’s anticipated to return again with sufficient time to make an impression within the remaining a part of this season. Arsenal will hope that he returns energised, refreshed and able to lead their assault as soon as once more.
The January window is open
It might be worse for Arsenal: this damage disaster might have occurred initially of February, after the switch window had closed. The timing of the Saka and Jesus accidents, particularly, has allowed the membership to recalibrate their switch plans and pursue one other attacker this month.
It stays to be seen, in fact, whether or not Arsenal’s executives are in a position to safe the signature of a prime ahead. That is famously a tough month through which to do enterprise. However Arsenal have the chance, no less than, to handle their largest drawback. If Saka and Jesus had gone down just some weeks later within the season, Arsenal wouldn’t have had that likelihood.
A brand new signing wouldn’t solely assist to fill in a number of the gaps in Arteta’s squad, it might additionally present your complete fanbase with a robust emotional and psychological increase.
They’re dominating their opponents
Regardless of their quite a few damage points, Arsenal’s underlying performances have been largely constructive in latest months. There have rightly been complaints about their lack of ability to transform their possibilities within the remaining third (an issue they hope to handle within the switch market), however the truth stays that Arsenal are dominating their opponents in nearly each recreation.
In 20 of their final 21 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have had a better anticipated objectives complete than their opponents. Defensively they’ve principally been stable, proscribing 5 of their final 9 Premier League opponents to an anticipated objectives determine of 0.5 or decrease.
At the moment, it’s the small particulars which might be undermining Arsenal’s trigger – Thomas Partey’s dreadful marking of Ollie Watkins towards Villa, for instance, or the Mikel Merino shot that struck the put up – moderately than the big-picture tactical outlook. Arteta can be extra involved if his injury-ravaged staff was struggling to play their typical recreation.
Certainly, after the draw with Villa he described it as an “immense” staff efficiency by his aspect, given the circumstances. “In opposition to this staff, what they’ve carried out after taking part in thrice in six days, with the identical gamers, not having sufficient [players] to alter it, I can’t be prouder of that,” stated Arteta.
Associated to this, it’s value noting that Arsenal stay extremely tough to beat. They’ve nonetheless misplaced solely two league matches all season, the final of which was towards Newcastle United in early November. They’re unbeaten in 12 league video games, which coincides with the return of captain Martin Odegaard to the staff.
Away fixtures will turn out to be much less treacherous
An odd quirk of Arsenal’s season is that they’ve already performed most of their hardest opponents away from dwelling, moderately than on the Emirates. Of the present prime 12 within the Premier League, Arsenal have performed 10 of them away.
Other than journeys to Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, Arteta’s aspect due to this fact have a presentable run of away video games within the second half of the marketing campaign. Their subsequent two away journeys, for instance, are towards struggling Wolves and Leicester Metropolis. Liverpool, against this, nonetheless must play six of the present prime 10 away from dwelling.
Arsenal’s unbalanced fixture listing to this point goes a way in direction of explaining why their type towards top-half groups is way worse than towards bottom-half groups, as this graphic exhibits:
Liverpool aren’t as formidable as prime Manchester Metropolis
Within the final two title races, Arsenal had been defeated by Manchester Metropolis groups that produced relentless profitable runs within the second half of the marketing campaign. Final season, Metropolis received 9 of their first 10 matches after Christmas, after which completed the season with one other nine-game profitable streak. The season earlier than, Pep Guardiola’s staff received 12 league video games in a row from February to Might.
Are Liverpool prone to produce such a run of type? It doesn’t appear that approach. In all competitions, Slot’s staff have did not win three of their final 5 matches. Within the Premier League, they’ve drawn 4 of their final eight. A six-point hole to peak Metropolis would have felt too massive for Arsenal to shut. With this Liverpool staff, there may be maybe not the identical concern of a three-month profitable streak.