In a season the place Nottingham Forest have defied expectations within the Premier League, supervisor Nuno Espirito Santo was once more eager to minimize their ambitions and maintain his aspect centered.
When requested in regards to the prospect of qualifying for the Champions League put them degree on factors with second-placed Arsenal, he simply wished to take a look at the subsequent sport.
“We will put together for Bournemouth,” mentioned Nuno as he intentionally swerved the query. “We noticed how effectively they did yesterday. It will be very powerful.”
Bournemouth’s gorgeous 4-1 win at Newcastle stretched their club-record unbeaten league run to 10 video games – and broken the Tyneside membership’s personal top-four hopes.
However with Forest unbeaten in eight matches, a run that includes seven wins and a draw with leaders Liverpool, the speak of taking up Europe’s elite once more is barely going to develop louder.
Nuno’s Forest are in prime place for Champions League qualification – however it may it’s much more…
Are Forest title challengers?
It was tense in the long run however Forest’s 3-2 win towards Southampton put them six factors behind leaders Liverpool, who’ve a sport in hand.
That appears a troublesome hole for any workforce to shut, however Nuno’s aspect look greatest positioned proper now.
Arsenal proceed to stutter and no workforce – not even Liverpool – can higher Forest’s 22 factors because the begin of December.
In addition they have the identical variety of factors (44) as Leicester had on the identical stage of their iconic Premier League title-winning season, though the Foxes had been joint prime at this level fairly than making an attempt to make up a six-point deficit.
The one season Forest have had extra factors at this stage of a top-flight marketing campaign was 1977-78 – the 12 months they received the title beneath Brian Clough.
What about Europe?
Forest haven’t performed in Europe because the 1995-96 season and haven’t been within the top-tier of European competitors since 1980-81, however are in a powerful place to qualify for the Champions League.
They’re six factors away from fifth-placed Newcastle and 7 forward of Chelsea and Bournemouth in sixth and seventh.
The highest 4 will certainly qualify for the Champions League subsequent season however that might enhance to 5 relying on English golf equipment’ success on this 12 months’s competitors.
That, and up to date historical past suggests Forest are in an excellent place.
In every of the previous 4 seasons – and 6 of the previous seven campaigns, groups with 44 factors or extra after 22 video games have gone on to complete within the prime 4.
Forest have additionally already performed Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester Metropolis away from house this season – three of their hardest fixtures.
Their subsequent three video games on the street – visits to fellow European chasers Bournemouth, Fulham and Newcastle – look essential.
‘Taking it step-by-step and being humble’
One phrase of warning for Forest comes from their underlying knowledge.
Nuno’s aspect proceed to outperform their anticipated targets – the metric used to evaluate the standard of an opportunity.
Their xG throughout the season is 28 targets – solely the fifteenth greatest tally within the league – however they’ve managed 33.
Equally, their anticipated targets towards is 25 but they’ve conceded 22.
That means Forest are choosing up extra factors than the info expects, however is also put all the way down to an in-form striker and high-quality goalkeeper – one thing Forest definitely have in Chris Wooden and Matz Sels respectively.
Defender Ola Aina adopted Nuno’s stance as he mentioned the membership won’t get forward of themselves within the coming weeks.
“It’s taking it step-by-step, being humble and dealing exhausting for one another and ensuring that we’re doing the appropriate issues to win soccer matches,” he mentioned after the victory towards backside membership Southampton.
What in regards to the backside?
Southampton, in the meantime, are having no such luck.
They’ve simply six factors from their 22 video games – 10 factors off security – and stay on track to file the worst factors tally in Premier League historical past.
The present file holders are Derby, who managed solely 11 factors within the 2007-08 season.
The Rams had seven at this stage and managed solely 4 attracts and 12 defeats in the remainder of the marketing campaign.
Southampton have additionally made little enchancment because the appointment of supervisor Ivan Juric in December, dropping all 5 league matches because the Croatian changed Russell Martin.