This text was translated into English by Synthetic Intelligence.
With some Bundesliga strikers, it looks like each shot finds the again of the online. Whether or not it is resulting from immense high quality or an unstoppable wave of success boosting their confidence, they handle to attain from any place. Because of Anticipated Targets (xG), this phenomenon can now be statistically noticed.
The web site ‘whoscored’ has compiled a listing of Bundesliga gamers who exceed their anticipated aim worth probably the most. This implies they rating considerably extra targets than the standard of their probabilities would counsel. However who’re the ten gamers with the perfect purpose within the Bundesliga?
10. Phil Harres (Holstein Kiel): 2.7 xGDiff
As we’ll see later, Holstein Kiel is especially environment friendly. Borussia Dortmund not too long ago skilled this firsthand. Based on Anticipated Targets, Harres ought to have solely 4.3 targets this season, however he has scored seven instances.
9. Jonas Wind (Wolfsburg): 2.85 xGDiff
The Wolfsburg striker is barely extra environment friendly, having scored seven instances when he ought to have solely scored 4.15 instances.
8. Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz): 3.13 xGDiff
With 8.87 anticipated targets, Burkardt has scored twelve instances. This raises questions: Is that this a statistical anomaly? Is Burkardt simply significantly fortunate proper now? Or is he genuinely that good at ending?
7. Shūto Machino (Holstein Kiel): 3.26 xGDiff
The second Kiel participant. As talked about with Harres, they appear to have discovered a deep properly of scoring effectivity within the north. Machino ought to have solely 3.75 targets however has additionally scored seven instances, like his teammate.
📸 Stuart Franklin – 2025 Getty Photographs
6. Benjamin Šeško (Leipzig): 3.32 xGDiff
Eight targets, though solely 4.68 had been anticipated. Šeško retains his composure in entrance of aim. Now he simply must do the identical when his opponent is known as Stiller.
5. Jens Stage (Werder Bremen): 3.46 xGDiff
The Dane has missed a couple of massive probabilities this season. It is all of the extra spectacular that he has scored seven instances with solely 3.54 anticipated targets.
4. Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund): 3.47 xGDiff
Seven targets with 3.53 xG. Does Dortmund have an exceptionally robust winger, or will Gittens’ aim tally drop within the second half? The latter is one thing Nuri Şahin might actually do with out proper now.
3. Patrick Schick (Leverkusen): 4.12 xGDiff
After his brace in opposition to Dortmund, he missed an enormous probability. An exception, as virtually each shot from Schick is at present a aim. The proof: eleven targets with solely 6.88 Anticipated Targets.
2. Alexis Claude-Maurice (Augsburg): 4.39 xGDiff
Maybe probably the most amusing case on this record. Based on xG, the offensive participant ought to solely have 1.61 targets. He hardly ever will get into harmful positions in entrance of the opponent’s aim. Nevertheless, Claude-Maurice does not care and has scored six instances. Union Berlin was his newest sufferer.
1. Omar Marmoush (Frankfurt): 4.8 xGDiff
From 10.2 xG, Marmoush scored 15 targets, catching the eye of Manchester Metropolis. The query now could be whether or not Marmoush is really that good or simply going by a section the place all the pieces works out for him. The Cityzens are betting some huge cash on the primary choice. Who’re we to disagree?
📸 Lars Baron – 2025 Getty Photographs